Refugee migration, unemployment and anti-asylum attitudes: Evidence from the 1990s Yugoslav refugee crisis

Author(s) : Marco Pecoraro, Bruno Lanz, Didier Ruedin

Source : https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:irn:wpaper:25-03

Abstract:

“This paper examines the short- to long-term effects of large-scale refugee inflows on labour markets and anti-asylum attitudes. Using the exogenous arrival of Yugoslav refugees to Switzerland in the 1990s and municipal-level data with an instrumental variables strategy, we find that refugee exposure increased unemployment and anti-asylum voting in the short term. Over a decade later, the refugee shock is no longer correlated with unemployment, whereas anti-asylum attitudes not only decline but reverse in areas with higher initial exposure, notably in rural municipalities. These results highlight the temporary nature of labour market disruptions and the longer-term shift in anti-asylum attitudes consistent with contact theory.”

Keywords: Refugees; Forced Migration; Unemployment; Labour Market Effects; Anti-Asylum Attitudes; Voting Behaviour; Contact Theory