A spatially differentiated reliability assessment of model of interregional migration flows in Europe

Abstract

This paper presents a method by which to assess the reliability of statistical data in the form of a matrix of population flows in Europe (32 countries, i.e., the EU28 plus Norway, Liechtenstein, Iceland and Switzerland) at both national (country-to-country flows, C2C) and regional level (region-to-region flows, R2R). The matrix has been developed as part of the international ESPON IRiE (European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion – Interregional Relations in Europe) project. This article makes a significant contribution by outlining a relatively simple and repeatable procedure that can underpin monitoring of Europe’s interregional migration-flow space. However, the most important added value here is provided by the spatial approach taken to the matter of model reliability. This reflects the way in which it provides for identification of the most important gaps and inconsistencies in data.

Keywords: Migration flows, data estimation, spatial model, model reliability assessment, European regions